Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.026858 0.030531 0.034553 0.039288 0.044716 0.050753 0.057985
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.020705 0.025589 0.031424 0.038934 0.048374 0.059888 0.075062
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.017924 0.023428 0.030404 0.039941 0.052709 0.069310 0.092693
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.015473 0.021152 0.028702 0.039539 0.054812 0.075740 0.106879
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.014177 0.020158 0.028445 0.040866 0.059187 0.085490 0.126606
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.012361 0.018176 0.026524 0.039510 0.059433 0.089219 0.137826
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.011062 0.016770 0.025235 0.038858 0.060528 0.094163 0.151289
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.009767 0.015218 0.023542 0.037355 0.060059 0.096519 0.160744
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.009312 0.014910 0.023710 0.038768 0.064349 0.106862 0.184568
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.008897 0.014615 0.023853 0.040126 0.068646 0.117616 0.210337
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.008520 0.014338 0.023985 0.041452 0.072990 0.128857 0.238285
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.007879 0.013552 0.023180 0.041052 0.074203 0.134618 0.256676
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.007285 0.012807 0.022400 0.040660 0.075462 0.140737 0.276825
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.006757 0.012131 0.021684 0.040316 0.076785 0.147138 0.298422
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.006479 0.011884 0.021711 0.041360 0.080866 0.159293 0.333346
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006033 0.011281 0.021023 0.040942 0.081990 0.165634 0.356722
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005851 0.011161 0.021235 0.042320 0.086897 0.180259 0.400145
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.005359 0.010397 0.020131 0.040912 0.085822 0.182109 0.414886
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004994 0.009853 0.019414 0.040235 0.086224 0.187169 0.437702
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.004570 0.009155 0.018330 0.038676 0.084527 0.187367 0.448871
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.004480 0.009137 0.018634 0.040143 0.089755 0.203868 0.502363
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.004388 0.009103 0.018902 0.041552 0.094998 0.220992 0.559846
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.004295 0.009061 0.019146 0.042928 0.100308 0.238877 0.621880